Why You Shouldn’t Make Early Transfers in the First Three FPL Gameweeks

Each season, Gameweek 1 throws managers into a frenzy. Whether it’s reacting to blanks from big-hitters or chasing points from one-week wonders, thousands hit the transfer button before the dust settles. But veteran Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers know this truth: the first three Gameweeks are all about patience.

Here’s why saving your transfer – or at least waiting until closer to the deadline – is a smarter, more strategic move in GW1–3.

Small Sample Sizes = Big Mistakes

🎯 One Gameweek Is Not Enough

A single blank doesn’t mean your pick was wrong. FPL is a game of long-term strategy, and early volatility is expected. Premium players like Salah, Haaland, or Saka blanking in GW1 isn’t a disaster – it’s normal.

Many managers use a “best 2 out of 3” rule – waiting at least two or three matches to judge a player’s worth. One-off hauls or blanks should not override preseason logic and fixture planning.

Avoid Knee-Jerk Transfers After GW1

🤯 The “Rage Transfer” Trap

GW1 emotions are high. But FPL isn’t won in August – it’s lost with poor, reactionary decisions.

Take Florian Wirtz: blanked in GW1 vs Bournemouth. Over 200,000 managers transferred him out immediately. If he hauls in GW2 or GW3 (or even both), those sellers not only wasted a transfer but may need to reverse it.

Meanwhile, Joško Gvardiol and Alexander Isak, who missed GW1 with minor issues, were also mass-sold. Isak’s ownership dropped despite being a likely starter going forward.

If you trusted these players before GW1, why abandon them now?

Banking a Transfer Gives You Flexibility

🧠 Two Transfers = Tactical Advantage

Holding your GW1 transfer into GW2 gives you two free transfers in GW3 — a crucial edge.

You can:

• Respond to new trends with minimal hits.

• Restructure based on early form and fixture shifts.

• React to genuine injuries or role changes.

This “mini wildcard” is one of the most powerful tools in the early season arsenal.

Injuries & Surprise Benching: The Case for Late Transfers

Players get hurt in training. They pick up knocks in midweek European games. Managers rotate unpredictably.

If you made your transfer on Monday to chase a price rise, and your new player is benched by Friday, you’ve walked straight into trouble.

Don’t Chase Points from GW1 Bandwagons

Players like Semenyo, Ekitiké, Chris Wood, and Dan Ballard all posted double-digit hauls in GW1 — and thousands jumped on them. But are they sustainable picks?

More often than not, GW1 heroes regress to the mean. Early adopters find themselves burning a second transfer to undo the first.

By waiting until GW3, you can separate real breakout players from one-hit wonders.

Price Rises Aren’t Worth the Panic

💸 A £0.1m Swing Isn’t the End of the World

In the first week of 2025/26, Morgan Rogers rose in price without an attacking return[8] — proof that early price moves aren’t always rational.

Yes, it’s painful to miss a rise or eat a drop, but don’t let it drive your decision-making.

Points > Pounds. A team value edge means nothing if you’re making bad moves.

Real GW1 Case Studies (2025/26)

Who Should Make Early Transfers?

Exceptions exist — but they’re rare.

✅ Make a move if:

• A player is confirmed injured and will miss multiple weeks.

• You can’t field 11 players without it.

• There’s a genuine long-term replacement you already planned for.

Even then, waiting until Friday (or at least Thursday) usually pays off. Injury updates, pressers, and training photos can save you from a costly mistake.

Final Verdict: Be the Manager Who Waits

📉 Early transfers = higher risk

📈 Late transfers = more data, better decisions

FPL is a game of margins. Making fewer emotional decisions, avoiding early hits, and reacting with more information leads to higher ranks. Don’t sacrifice a good strategy just to catch a fleeting price change or chase a single Gameweek score.